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Bitcoin (BTC) is starting a new week in a volatile place – below $45,000 and below some of the major moving averages. What then?

Almost a week after undoing the chained leverage position that forced the market to reach $42,800, Bitcoin wiped out most of its subsequent recovery.

The weekend resulted in a little model shift, and now, the downtrend volatility is firmly in place. With BTC/USD down 13% in a week, Cointelegraph took a look at five things that might help traders anticipate their next move.

Stocks due for redemption

Stocks are expected to do better this week after selling pressure added to bitcoin’s woes in the first half of September.

With a red week late, expectations are that stocks will now rise, continuing the trend that has marked markets since the coronavirus crash in March 2020.

“Expect a rebound in stocks this week and provide some relief for Bitcoin,” said Charles Edwards, CEO of Capriol Investments. Climate forecast.

Bitcoin’s overall relationship to macro trends has become increasingly questionable over the past year. However, shocks to the system continue to affect bitcoin’s price action, as evidenced by the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole virtual summit earlier in September.

“The world still sees bitcoin as a risk to assets,” Edwards added In the comments along with the comparative chart.

“Almost every Bitcoin correction in 2021 is associated with an S&P500 correction of -2% or more.”

BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 Chart. Source: Charles Edwards/Twitter

On the flip side, strong stocks may keep the strength of the US dollar in check, something that also gives Bitcoin more breathing space.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) saw a quick move towards 93 last week before it stopped consolidating its gains, and it’s an ongoing process.

Spot price breaks below bullish metrics

Expectations are that the macro moves could be a deal breaker when it comes to Bitcoin’s price trajectory for this week.

After a range over the weekend, last-minute volatility on Sunday ended with the BTC/USD slipping below $45,000.

With spot traders Hedge their bets On the more downside, arguably, there has never been a greater disparity between on-chain metrics, adoption phenomena, and price.

“Stablecoin Liquidity Increases, Bitcoin On Exchanges Reaches 3-Year Low, Norms Wake Up,” Moskovski Capital CEO Lex Moskovski sum up.

“If the macro does not solve the bed, the next stage is programmed.”

Moskovsky later added that the macro markets had already started the week in the green and that the stablecoins, which were not used as collateral for the short, made a clear bullish argument.

As Cointelegraph reported, current estimates see $43,000 and $38,000 as potential price floors, with a bounce from these levels despite being well below the important moving averages.

September was a historically underperforming month for bitcoin, and as such, price expectations favor a resumption of the “real” uptrend from October onwards.

“Remember every so often that Bitcoin has a red month in September and a big price movement in the fourth quarter,” Lark Davis tweeted. followers said Monday.

“BTC could still reach 100,000 by the end of the year.”

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

However, veteran trader Peter Brandt is sounding the alarm – at least for the time being.

“There is a name for this chart pattern. Anyone want to guess what it is called?” Ho chirp Besides the daily chart is showing what appears to be a breakdown to build a bearish flag.

“Dance with 2017”

It’s not all bad and gloomy – when it comes to the halving cycle, this year Bitcoin is still “dancing with 2017” in terms of price gains.

This is according to data from trading platform Decentrader, which this week indicates that BTC/USD in 2021 is still on track for this year after the block support halving.

“Dance with 2017 in the moment,” Decentrader Analyst Filbfilb She said In the comments over the weekend.

Bitcoin Bull run comparison chart. Source: Decentrader

The graph shows the progress of the miner in May. Previously, between its 2013 and 2017 gains, Bitcoin retracted to form a new lower pattern in May, a trend that eventually continues.

As Cointelegraph reports, the “double top” phenomenon remains an analyst’s bet on how Bitcoin approaches 2021 – just as it did in 2013 and 2017 – with prices falling between the link in May to $29,000.

New all-time high for illiquid monthly supply

The feature that set last week’s low price environment apart from its predecessors was investor behavior – everyone kept buying.

In contrast to the panic that occurred during periods like March 2020, last week saw an oversupply that was flooded into the market by speculators who were eagerly bought by strong hands.

According to statistician Willy Wu, every category of Bitcoin investor either added to their positions or remained neutral during the recent turmoil.

“The whales were recently added. Minnow continues to pile up. 10-1000 BTC holders are basically flat, “he I showed Sunday along with data from analytics firm Glassnode on the chain.

“Publicly shrinking reserves (essentially shrinking exchanges and ETFs while adding companies).”

Bitcoin supply distribution chart. Source: Willie Wu. Twitter

If the supply of Bitcoin is more in demand than ever, similar data reinforces this point. As noted by analyst William Clemente, the past week had little to no effect on the patterns of scammers.

“93% of Bitcoin supply has not moved in at least a month. This is an all-time high. Just another metric that shows the extent of the bullish supply dynamics.” hung, citing Glassnode data.

Illustrative chart of Bitcoin HODL waves. Source: William Clemente / Twitter

Where once greed comes fear…

All that changed for its gauge of investor sentiment, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which this week is publishing some intriguing data on market sentiment.

Related Topics: Top 5 Cryptocurrencies to Watch This Week: BTC, ALGO, ATOM, XTZ, EGLD

The dip to $42,800 lowered its readings from “extreme greed” to “fear”, sentiment territory that held until Sunday.

As the weekend comes to a close, the indicator has added some new “greed” to the mix – although price action is actually lower.

At the time of writing on Monday, Fear & Greed is standing at 44/100 – still in “fear” territory – while BTC/USD is trading below $45,000.

Crypto Fear & Geed Indicator. Source: Alternative.me

Funding rates across exchanges are slightly positive, however it does not rule out the possibility of a “short squeeze” to boost price performance.